Alright, it's a lovely Saturday night, and I'm sitting down to write my Western Conference Predictions for the upcoming season (while listening to the Sharks/Coyotes game). This year, no matter how much I've hesitated, I'm doing the West before the East, the hypothetically more difficult to predict. Just remember two things:
*I am not an expert and don't claim to be. Like last year, I have not read any predictions on TSN.ca, ESPN.com, in the Hockey News, or at various blogs. Why? I'd rather put my own random thoughts on here, right or wrong.
*Chance are, they will be wrong. It's too hard to predict anything in this league, and that's especially true in an Olympic season. So much can change for teams who may lose their best player or players for a long stretch at a critical time. Plus, as we've seen for two years running now, playoff races have come down to the wire, some to even the literal last games of the season.
With that established, I'll try to be shorter than last year with this (yeah right!), but yet still include for some randomn thoughts that can provide enjoyment during the post regular season analysis.
Like last year, I'm first looking at what teams I think will be better, worse, or even to last year, before giving my top 8!
Northwest:
Vancouver - EVEN to BETTER
I like Vancouver's chances here, maybe even moreso than last year. Like so many other teams, their biggest star is in net, and Roberto Luongo may just be the #1 guy in line for Team Canada at the Olympics in Vancouver. Lot of pressure on a guy who faced some injuries in the recent past. But I think he's up for the task; no doubt he is committed, maybe more than ever after yet another disappointing playoff loss. On offense, it is truly the twins team now, if it wasn't before, with oft-injured Demitra, well, injured again. Key Questions: If Alex Burrows can have a good follow-up to last year's surprise season. And if the talk of the town - literally - Cody Hodgson makes the team and lives up to the hype surrounding him.
Calgary - EVEN
I may be alone in this, but I do not see how Bouwmeester makes this team THAT much better. He improves the defense, but even though he was lauded as the best thing out there, he's never proven to me that he's anything beyond the most boring intermission interview next to "Captain Mumbles" (Chris Drury). Yet, he's still young and maybe he'll come more into his own in Calgary. Scoring will suffer, losing a great player in Cammalleri to Montreal. I'm not sure they make it up. Captain Jarome Iginla and good guy Craig Conroy remain my favorites on this team, but I'm keeping a close eye on former Rangers Sjostrom and Dawes as well. Key Questions: Can Kipper be the goalie he has shown glimpses of during this team's success? How will Olli Jokinen respond in his first full year w/the team.
Edmonton - BETTER
I have no reason whatsoever to believe that this team will truly be better than last year, but let's get this straight right away, my reasoning has nothing, absolutely NOTHING to do with new assistant coach Tom Renney. Just so we're clear. But if we are being honest, I think that Edmonton was a train wreck at times last season but were good enough at times to make it a question of whether or not they'd be able to sneak in the playoffs. The biggest difference to this team, besides the new coaching staff is the addition of former elite goalie Nikolai Khabibulin. Maybe I'm giving them too much credit for minimal changes, but I'll still be curious to see. Key Questions: What coaching style wins or gets the most credit for how the team turns out - Quinn's go-go-go or Renney's play-for-the-shootout snore fest?
Minnesota - EVEN
The Wild missed the playoffs by the slimmest of margins last year. Looking to this year they have, for the first time in what seems like a hundred years, a coach that is not Jacques Lemaire. That alone is enough to make it impossible to guess where they'll end up. The oft-injured Gaborik is gone, and the oft-injured Havlat is in to take his place. I think this team has decent defense, and very strong goaltending, but it'll still be a question of how much they'll score. Although, much like with the Rangers, by default, if players are given the green light to go, they'll be better off in my opinion. Key Questions: Again, does Havlat, who is now, next to Mikko Koivu, the face of the offense, stay healthy and make the big impression we know he wants to?
Colorado - EVEN to WORSE
I don't know why everyone assumes that Phoenix will be the dead last time in the Western Conference this year. My votes on Colorado. Save getting a better goalie - Florida's Craig Anderson, tell me how this team got better? I love Matt Duchene - the kid is a trip; but I don't think he'll provide enough help to a team in dire need of...anything. The sad departure of long time staple and Captain Joe Sakic, means new leaders will have to emerge. I just don't see it being this year. Key Questions: Can Paul Stastny, a sensation as a rookie, rebound from last season's injury and be the leading scorer on this team?
Pacific:
San Jose - EVEN to BETTER
San Jose provides one of the most confusing teams to analyze. They have enough talent and they always play so convincingly - until it counts that is. Vancouver's Team1040 voted them one of the biggest busts of the last decade for their consistent superb regular seasons followed by disastrous departures from the post-season, none more embarassing than last year's journey - from President's Trophy to first round upset at the hands of Anaheim. Cheechoo and Michalek are gone, Marleau has had his Captain's C stripped, and Heatley is hoping Joe Thornton can help them both resurrect their careers in Northern California. Who's to say what will happen after, but I expect them to be one of the best in the West in the regular season; not that much has changed and Nabokov is still one of the elite goalies in the league. I'm keeping my eyes on personal favorite Manny Malhotra (and Jed Ortmeyer if he sees time with the big club). And this team in general because they are such a mystery to everyone, probably even themselves. Key Questions: How does the tandem of Thornton and Heatley fare? Will this team ever figure out how to get that "never say die" attitude when it really matters? If it's not an issue of talent, is it an issue of heart?
Anaheim - BETTER
I'm not a huge Ducks fan, and I don't know why. (Maybe perhaps Chris Pronger's departure will improve this just slightly?) I have always liked Giguere and Hiller really impressed me last year. Their defense should still be solid enough, but it's their offense that makes me shake my head in disbelief. Ryan, finally coming into his own with all the promise, with Getzlaf, who became a superstar out of nowhere it seems, and Perry. Add Lupul and Saku Koivu - tell me his reuniting with Selanne is not a good story, by the way. I'm rooting for the long time Habs Captain in his new colors even if they are not as pretty! This team is stacked. I see no reason why they won't be at the top of the conference. Key Questions: How will Koivu adapt to the West; he's been quoted as saying it is a different world even in the pre-season. Is Hiller now the true #1?
Los Angeles - BETTER
I greatly look forward every year to watching this team improve. Drew Doughty as a rookie last year, looked like he'd been running the powerplay for years. Scuderi will provide some much needed experience to this teams backline, coming over from a winning team. A lot of people are saying perhaps this is the Kings year to finally make a push to the postseason. I am crossing my fingers for them, but even if they fall short, I think they will definitely continue to improve and make it a real challenge. Key Questions: Kopitar's production has slowed but he's going to need to be a top scorer for this team - can he do it? Is Quick ready for the big time?
Phoenix - EVEN
My adoptive desert team. A team I want to see succeed more than almost any other. A team that my heart wants to tell me will excel because they have heart and talent and a young team full of kids who want to prove something to everyone. And because they have one of the BEST captains in the league, with more talent than he is credited for and one of the best attitudes I've ever seen. Yeah. I want them to do well. But I can't think with my heart; I have to try to be diplomatic here. What's good: this team was a playoff team until All-Star break last season and showed strong games against the powerhouse Sharks and Ducks. The bad: they couldn't hold onto the lead they had gained and finished the season scoring the 4th fewest goals in the league. I think Aucoin should help Jovo, Yandle, and Michalek provide some points from the defense. I think having guys like Upshall, Lombardi, and Prucha (sigh) for a full year will help to boost those goal totals. But I am just not sure that they are able to overcome all the emotional and on-ice difficulties. They are a young team and no one (seriously folks) should have had to endure what these players did last year, all summer, and still today. I'll be watching and rooting though, and hoping this team beats the odds. Key Questions: Does Bryzgalov regain his former solid play and be a necessary force for this team? Wlll Vrbata, who had a very impressive season with the team two years ago, come back after a dismal and disjointed last season in Tampa?
Dallas - EVEN
For my love and respect of Mike Modano, I hope this team is able to forget about everything that went wrong last year. From Turco forgetting how to play goal, to long-term injures to Morrow, Richards and Zubov, it was just all not good in Dallas from the start. (And no, the guy with the initials S.A. was not the one to blame). They have a new GM in Niewendyk nand a new coach in Marc Crawford, coming off a gig on HNIC. I'll be interested to see how the "coach only dogs can hear" will fair in the Lone Star State. Let's face facts though - this team can be very successful if a few things fall into place. If Turco plays like he did 2 seasons ago and if they stay healthy. They have the veteran tandem of Morrow and Modano, and plenty of talent to score with Ribeiro, Richards, and Eriksson. Their defense will be suspect, as for the first time in more than a decade Sergei Zubov will not be on their blueline. Even though he was oft-injured in most recent seasons, he is the type of player you take for granted and miss when he is gone(Trust me on this!). Key Questions: I've already kinda asked it - who steps up on defense for this team? Will the real Marty Turco please show up?
Central:
Detroit - EVEN
Despite some changes in player personnel, I never root against Detroit. For when I do, I find, I often look foolish. They never fail to have someone waiting in the wings (no pun intended) to step into one of the best systems in the league and be game ready. They came within a game of winning the Stanley Cup, again, and that was on an off year for the team and their best guy and leader Nick Lidstrom. There's nothing much I can say about them, except that until it is proven otherwise, Detroit is legit. Key Questions: Will rookie Ville Leino live up to the hype I keep hearing? Wlll the loss of Marian Hossa be as good a thing for Detroit as it was for Pittsburgh?
Nashville - EVEN to WORSE
I have always liked Nashville, and they always seem to hover around the same place - right around the 8th seed in the playoffs. Sometimes they get in, and have memorable playoff run-ins with San Jose, and sometimes they fall just short. Last year was one of the just short years. Their defense shone behind Shea Weber last year and Pekka Rinne impressed in nets. It's their offense that concerns me. JP Dumont, once always counted upon to come through, has watched his goal totals slip in recent seasons. I'll be curious to see how they do, but if I had to guess, this is not a year they make the playoffs or come as close as they had been. Key Questions: Is defense enough or will this be a LONG season in Tennessee?
Columbus - EVEN
My other once favorite adoptive team. Columbus pleased many, myself included, by finally making the playoffs for the first time in their existence last season. They then promptly, very promptly, exited in four games to division rival Detroit. Steve Mason made such strides to get this team where they were, but for Columbus to have moved on in the playoffs would have meant a stand-on-his-head situation from the young goalie. And it just didn't happen. But experience is a teacher and I think it was good they got the first steps of that to build on for this year. If Nash can regain his brilliant top form and bring his teammates along for the ride, there is no telling how high they'll go. Vermette was a nice addition last year. Huselius and Umberger had moments, but they'll need to do more. As a fan, I want to see how Filatov performs this year. Former Ranger Fedor Tyutin continues to impress, as many of us thought he would and I expect him to continue making strides every year. In a questionable move, team and fan favorite Manny Malhotra is gone in favor of Pahlsson, who will be paid more than Malhotra asked for. Bottom line: I think Columbus will go as far as Mason and Nash will take them. Key Questions: Just how far can Mason and Nash take them? Will Freddy Modin ever remain healthy enough to make a difference here like he did in Tampa once upon a time?
Chicago - EVEN to BETTER to ????
Well, once upon a time earlier this summer, I thought this team was going to be a Cup favorite. And they still may be. But an off-season of turmoil and whatever the heck you want to call it puts a lot more into question. The Kane saga disappeared (thankfully), but the rest of it remains. Marian Hossa was given a 12-year contract but will not start the season due to injury. The GM who built this team was let go, abruptly, to former Hawk Marty Havlat's extreme annoyance. They still have an overpaid Brian Campbell which is only the beginning of the salary cap concerns. And their win now or never goal is backstopped by a French goalie who cannot decide whether his last name is Hue-ay or Hue-T. Look, I love the Hawks and I love the story they wrote. I still believe they'll be very good. But I'm still curious how it all comes together. If it is win now at all costs, do they have all the pieces in place? Key Questions: The goalie known as Huet - is he the real deal? Can Kane put the off-season drama behind him and have as stellar a year as he did last season? In what shape will Hossa find this team when he joins them just early of the new year? Will he make the difference they think he will?
St. Louis - BETTER
I, with embarassment, must admit that I hardly ever watch the Blues. Common sense shows it's harder for me to watch games that start during the 8 o'clock hour because I'm already probably invested in some game going on in the East. My knowledge of St. Louis suffers for that. But, I do always silently wish well to John Davidson's team. And now Darren Pang has left the desert for Missouri as well, so chances are I'll be happy to turn on a game or two (Phoenix's loss is St. Louis' gain and I owe Panger a lot for being so willing to lay praise on Prucha when he joined the team at deadline). Back to the ice, it was only a matter of time before St. Louis got good. They had the young talent, we kept hearing about, but I don't think anyone would have predicted how good it would come together for them last year. A team of players where I only know most of them by where they came from before they got there, they were able to make huge strides despite injures to key players (Johnson and the golf cart, Legace and the carpet) and leapfrog over a few teams to take the 6th seed last spring. I still know hardly anything about them, but I know better than to root against a team that has Ty Conklin as their back up. (As I said before, his last two NHL teams lost in the Stanley Cup Final. But they made it to the Final!) Key Questions: Can Mason deliver for this team? How do Kariya and Johnson rebound from their injuries?
Okay, so that wasn't any shorter than last year. But, did you really believe me when I said I'd try? =) Without further ado, how it'll all shake out.
Western Conference:
1) San Jose
2) Detroit
3) Vancouver
4) Anaheim
5) Chicago
6) Calgary
7) St. Louis
8) Edmonton
Narrow misses to Columbus, Dallas, and Los Angeles, even though truth be told it's a big risk to have all three Western Canadian teams in the playoffs and to ignore how potentially good Dallas and Columbus can be if all goes right. But it's a risk I'm going to take. In fact, my only thought, as previously mentioned, is that I feel strongly that Colorado will end up last in the conference for a second year in a row.
But anything can happen, right?
Stay tuned for the Eastern Conference Predictions soon - which may just prove to be harder than I originally thought.
Showing posts with label Regular Season. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Regular Season. Show all posts
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
My Regular Season Western Conference Predictions Analysis - The Good, The Bad, The Ugly. . .
And now, the analysis of my regular season predictions for the Western Conference. Fair warning, I did, as expected, pretty brutally. . .
My Predictions:
1) Detroit
2) San Jose
3) Calgary
4) Dallas
5) Anaheim
6) Colorado
7) Phoenix
8) Chicago
In Reality:
San Jose
Detroit
Vancouver
Chicago
Calgary
St. Louis
Columbus
Anaheim
Pat Me On the Back...
Wild: "I like the Wild. But. . .Marian Gaborik, the Ranger killer, has not proven he can stay healthy. . .makes me think this team will not be as good as years past....A lot was up and down in Minnesota last year and they did make a rather quick exit. Not sure I'd bank on the Wild in what will be a tough race in the West this year." (I had them on a narrow miss and it was, indeed, a pretty narrow miss).
Calgary: "I don't think you can go wrong with an offense centered around I-can-do-everything-posterboy Jarome Iginla. But he can't do it himself. ...Guys like Mike Cammalleri, Craig Conroy and Daymond Langkow will really have to step up. I don't see why Calgary isn't my front-runner though, on experience and the last few years alone."
Sharks: "Add one Dan Boyle, who is looking to resurrect and be the top offensive D-man he proved he could be in Tampa, and you have a team. A plethora of young talent like Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Ryan Clowe, Milan Michalek, and Joe Pavelski, are primed for good years. This team seems poised. Not to mention anything of my favorite for Vezina this year, the man who was robbed last year, Evgeni Nabokov. Not many are better. The guy was a machine last year. Expect no different in this. I expect San Jose and Dallas to fight to the end for the division title, although I'm not sure either will knock Detroit from the top step." (If you ignore the fact that I said they were battling the Stars, and throw in Devon Settogucci in there, I had it almost right. And San Jose did knock Detroit from the top spot, so they were even better than I thought.)
Kings: "But you know what - I think they'll be better than last year, points wise at least. Playoffs, unfortunately, not a good chance at all. (71 points in 07-08, 79 points in 08-09).
Red Wings: "Really hard to imagine them not sailing right through to the playoffs, although, let it be said, Chicago played them tough last year and will be better this year and Nashville was always a tough game as well. They probably will not have as many points in what should be a more difficult division. But, really, who cares. Bottom line: Red Wings will be playoff bound." (True, they didn't top the West, they came a few points short. But they had 112 points this year, to their 115 last year).
Chicago: "Here's hoping, and it might just be a reality, the only other non-successful original six team besides the New York Rangers, will see a fast rise to glory this year.... Also, add a hopefully (seriously now!) healthy Marty Havlat, and perhaps this is the year. Again, the West is tough, perhaps tougher than last year, but if I had to pick, I'd say Chicago gets it done." (Well what shocks me more than Chicago making the playoffs as I predicted, is that Marty Havlat made it the entire regular season without major injury. I am stunned. He deserves props for this. Chicago is in a good place. I had them lower than they ended up being, but again, remember I got my head tripped up in all that Colorado and Dallas nonsense).
Predators: ". . .but I’m not sure the team that has just seemed to sneak in the last few years, will do it again this year. They will have to be better and have to generate more points in a tougher central division. And I’m not sure they do it....I am just going on a hunch that they don’t make it. If they do, I’m happy. But I’m just not sure it’s not someone else’s turn."
Neither/Nor:
Oilers: "Figure, if Dwayne Roloson can keep the group in it, if he stays, and Sheldon Souray can be the power play quarterback the Oil signed last year, maybe they do have a shot. In my mind there are four or five probable-to-definite picks for the West, and the other three spots are up for grabs. I wouldn't count the Oilers out of it, but that's really going to be anyone's guess." (Another close miss; and I'm taking credit for Roloson here, because he was a big reason this team made it as close as they were).
Ducks: "I have to assume the Ducks will be at least as good as they were last year, if not better...I still think they lack something. But this team is one of my bets to make the playoffs. And probably to be angry enough to go further than last year's quick exit. (I picked them to make the playoffs, yes, but I must admit I thought they'd be more of a shoo-in than they were, stumbling for much of the season and keeping the eighth seed on a late season rise. As for going forther in the playoffs, that it TBD, even if I don't see it happening.)
I'm Such a Moron:
Colorado: "I guess I figure it would have to be either the Wild or the Avalanche making the playoffs this year. Don't think they'd both miss it. And I just might have to go on the side of Colorado. Joe Sakic will need to stay healthy." (I can't even type it because it pains me to say, but I actually thought Peter Budaj would get the job done in nets. Yikes! As for Colorado in general, if Sakic going down didn't hurt this team in every way imaginable, losing Stastny too made it that much worse. I'm not saying they would have made the playoffs, but the Avs shouldn't have been the last place team either and I don't see how they are if those two guys are healthy.)
Canucks: "Colorado, Calgary, Edmonton, and perhaps even Minnesota will average more goals. I sadly don't see how this team makes the playoffs. Mats Sundin, the wanted savior, might not have been able to provide enough on his own to save this team." (Well, call me a moron here. I am not sure if Vancouver was going to be this good, or if Mat Sundin really DID spark some magic in the Pacific Northwest, but this team, a team with a core that has been together a while now, looked much better in the 2nd half than I would have thought. Sundin did help. And you can't bet against a team that has Roberto Luongo. At least I probably shouldn't have. Although who woulda thunk it about Alex Burrows...?)
Stars: "I am excited to see how the Stars do this year and more confident than last year that they will do well. I think Dallas will flourish this year. Marty Turco slayed some demons with his solid performance in nets during the playoffs. Brendan Morrow was a honest-to-goodness beast when it counted. Haven't seen that from him in quite some time. Brad Richards started to find his stride and will get to test his first full year for the black, green, and gold. And my favorite and yours, Sean Avery, who is already ruffling feathers all throughout the Western Conference, gets to pal up with (or against) agitator Steve Ott. Nice." (WELL, obviously nothing turned out the way for Dallas that I thought it would. The team was a wreck to start. Turco forgot what he did in the previous pring. Avery was a non-factor, although most would go on to blame him - unjustifiably - for the team's slow start on ice. Morrow ended up out for the season. Sergei Zubov played as many games for the Stars as Ilya Zubov played for the Senators (10). And Richards broke his wrist, came back, and hurt it again. This was just not the Stars year in any regard whatsoever. And it was NOT all about Sean Avery!)
Coyotes: "I really like their chances at being one of those bottom three surprise teams to squeeze into the playoffs. They almost did it last year and I was rooting for them, trust me. I think having Ilya Bryzgalov for a full year in nets might make the difference. ... Honestly, I think things are looking brighter in Phoenix and perhaps, bright enough to bring the maroon and white into the promised second season. Out of the could-be-there, these might be my favorites." (I lauded Shane Doan, Ed Jovonovski, and Peter Mueller in my paragraph on the desert dogs. Doan had a great year, but Jovo struggled badly to start and the young guys in their sophomore years like Mueller, struggled too. Bryzlgalov would have had to been much better to have helped their cause. All that said, the team did have a better start and at the All-Star break sat in the 5th seed. A late season collapse with no goal scoring, and an untimely injury to defenseman Kurt Sauer, told the tale in the end. No playoffs in Phoenix. I think you can tell that I really wanted them there when I wrote the above in October. Just imagine how much I wanted them there after my favorite player was traded to them in March!!)
Columbus: "Every year for the last few, I've picked Columbus to make the playoffs. And no matter how much I want them to (and I do) and feel they do have a chance (I do), I am not sure if it's possible for all three of the last spots in the West to be filled with teams that failed to make the dance last year. Possible - of course. Probable - probably not. ....and Steve Mason if necessary and healthy, are enough to get it done. I do hope so. Honestly for myself, and for guys like Rick Nash and Manny Malhotra, I hope they do it. I’m just not sure if this is the year to see Phoenix, Chicago, AND Columbus all knock out practical perennial playoff teams like Colorado, and Minnesota." (Well, again, if I was ever happy to be wrong, it is with this team. I had been picking Columbus, like Florida in the East, for the last three years, and finally - FINALLY - they did it. Only I didn't pick 'em. Ribb me all you want. I'm just glad they got it done!)
Blues: "Thus, I know nothing really except I can’t imagine St. Louis will be much better, and I can’t imagine this team is in line for a playoff berth in an over talented and super saturated West." (Good for the Blues for proving me wrong. With the injuries this team has had, it is a big testament to the young guys there and their few lasting veterans that they were able to come through the West. Great job)
Final Thoughts:
So, in my mind, I thought Dallas, Detroit, San Jose, Calgary, and Anaheim were the shoo-ins. I thought Colorado would be the we've-been-there-before and here-we-are-again breed. And I thought Phoenix and Chicago would jump in. Obviously Dallas was an extreme overstep, as my feelings about Montreal were in the East. People can be wrong. I most definitely can be wrong. I'm very glad that Chicago, Columbus, and St. Louis were able to make it in to get some fresh blood out there. I really am. Now, next year, if it's Phoenix replacing one of the old steady and true guys, I am all for it. And how about Nashville having a good enough year to be chasing a 3 seed instead of falling short of an 8. Just some things I'd like to see. But, no, none of this fixes my horrendous picks, although, when all was said and done, I still picked 5 out of 8 correctly.
My Predictions:
1) Detroit
2) San Jose
3) Calgary
4) Dallas
5) Anaheim
6) Colorado
7) Phoenix
8) Chicago
In Reality:
San Jose
Detroit
Vancouver
Chicago
Calgary
St. Louis
Columbus
Anaheim
Pat Me On the Back...
Wild: "I like the Wild. But. . .Marian Gaborik, the Ranger killer, has not proven he can stay healthy. . .makes me think this team will not be as good as years past....A lot was up and down in Minnesota last year and they did make a rather quick exit. Not sure I'd bank on the Wild in what will be a tough race in the West this year." (I had them on a narrow miss and it was, indeed, a pretty narrow miss).
Calgary: "I don't think you can go wrong with an offense centered around I-can-do-everything-posterboy Jarome Iginla. But he can't do it himself. ...Guys like Mike Cammalleri, Craig Conroy and Daymond Langkow will really have to step up. I don't see why Calgary isn't my front-runner though, on experience and the last few years alone."
Sharks: "Add one Dan Boyle, who is looking to resurrect and be the top offensive D-man he proved he could be in Tampa, and you have a team. A plethora of young talent like Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Ryan Clowe, Milan Michalek, and Joe Pavelski, are primed for good years. This team seems poised. Not to mention anything of my favorite for Vezina this year, the man who was robbed last year, Evgeni Nabokov. Not many are better. The guy was a machine last year. Expect no different in this. I expect San Jose and Dallas to fight to the end for the division title, although I'm not sure either will knock Detroit from the top step." (If you ignore the fact that I said they were battling the Stars, and throw in Devon Settogucci in there, I had it almost right. And San Jose did knock Detroit from the top spot, so they were even better than I thought.)
Kings: "But you know what - I think they'll be better than last year, points wise at least. Playoffs, unfortunately, not a good chance at all. (71 points in 07-08, 79 points in 08-09).
Red Wings: "Really hard to imagine them not sailing right through to the playoffs, although, let it be said, Chicago played them tough last year and will be better this year and Nashville was always a tough game as well. They probably will not have as many points in what should be a more difficult division. But, really, who cares. Bottom line: Red Wings will be playoff bound." (True, they didn't top the West, they came a few points short. But they had 112 points this year, to their 115 last year).
Chicago: "Here's hoping, and it might just be a reality, the only other non-successful original six team besides the New York Rangers, will see a fast rise to glory this year.... Also, add a hopefully (seriously now!) healthy Marty Havlat, and perhaps this is the year. Again, the West is tough, perhaps tougher than last year, but if I had to pick, I'd say Chicago gets it done." (Well what shocks me more than Chicago making the playoffs as I predicted, is that Marty Havlat made it the entire regular season without major injury. I am stunned. He deserves props for this. Chicago is in a good place. I had them lower than they ended up being, but again, remember I got my head tripped up in all that Colorado and Dallas nonsense).
Predators: ". . .but I’m not sure the team that has just seemed to sneak in the last few years, will do it again this year. They will have to be better and have to generate more points in a tougher central division. And I’m not sure they do it....I am just going on a hunch that they don’t make it. If they do, I’m happy. But I’m just not sure it’s not someone else’s turn."
Neither/Nor:
Oilers: "Figure, if Dwayne Roloson can keep the group in it, if he stays, and Sheldon Souray can be the power play quarterback the Oil signed last year, maybe they do have a shot. In my mind there are four or five probable-to-definite picks for the West, and the other three spots are up for grabs. I wouldn't count the Oilers out of it, but that's really going to be anyone's guess." (Another close miss; and I'm taking credit for Roloson here, because he was a big reason this team made it as close as they were).
Ducks: "I have to assume the Ducks will be at least as good as they were last year, if not better...I still think they lack something. But this team is one of my bets to make the playoffs. And probably to be angry enough to go further than last year's quick exit. (I picked them to make the playoffs, yes, but I must admit I thought they'd be more of a shoo-in than they were, stumbling for much of the season and keeping the eighth seed on a late season rise. As for going forther in the playoffs, that it TBD, even if I don't see it happening.)
I'm Such a Moron:
Colorado: "I guess I figure it would have to be either the Wild or the Avalanche making the playoffs this year. Don't think they'd both miss it. And I just might have to go on the side of Colorado. Joe Sakic will need to stay healthy." (I can't even type it because it pains me to say, but I actually thought Peter Budaj would get the job done in nets. Yikes! As for Colorado in general, if Sakic going down didn't hurt this team in every way imaginable, losing Stastny too made it that much worse. I'm not saying they would have made the playoffs, but the Avs shouldn't have been the last place team either and I don't see how they are if those two guys are healthy.)
Canucks: "Colorado, Calgary, Edmonton, and perhaps even Minnesota will average more goals. I sadly don't see how this team makes the playoffs. Mats Sundin, the wanted savior, might not have been able to provide enough on his own to save this team." (Well, call me a moron here. I am not sure if Vancouver was going to be this good, or if Mat Sundin really DID spark some magic in the Pacific Northwest, but this team, a team with a core that has been together a while now, looked much better in the 2nd half than I would have thought. Sundin did help. And you can't bet against a team that has Roberto Luongo. At least I probably shouldn't have. Although who woulda thunk it about Alex Burrows...?)
Stars: "I am excited to see how the Stars do this year and more confident than last year that they will do well. I think Dallas will flourish this year. Marty Turco slayed some demons with his solid performance in nets during the playoffs. Brendan Morrow was a honest-to-goodness beast when it counted. Haven't seen that from him in quite some time. Brad Richards started to find his stride and will get to test his first full year for the black, green, and gold. And my favorite and yours, Sean Avery, who is already ruffling feathers all throughout the Western Conference, gets to pal up with (or against) agitator Steve Ott. Nice." (WELL, obviously nothing turned out the way for Dallas that I thought it would. The team was a wreck to start. Turco forgot what he did in the previous pring. Avery was a non-factor, although most would go on to blame him - unjustifiably - for the team's slow start on ice. Morrow ended up out for the season. Sergei Zubov played as many games for the Stars as Ilya Zubov played for the Senators (10). And Richards broke his wrist, came back, and hurt it again. This was just not the Stars year in any regard whatsoever. And it was NOT all about Sean Avery!)
Coyotes: "I really like their chances at being one of those bottom three surprise teams to squeeze into the playoffs. They almost did it last year and I was rooting for them, trust me. I think having Ilya Bryzgalov for a full year in nets might make the difference. ... Honestly, I think things are looking brighter in Phoenix and perhaps, bright enough to bring the maroon and white into the promised second season. Out of the could-be-there, these might be my favorites." (I lauded Shane Doan, Ed Jovonovski, and Peter Mueller in my paragraph on the desert dogs. Doan had a great year, but Jovo struggled badly to start and the young guys in their sophomore years like Mueller, struggled too. Bryzlgalov would have had to been much better to have helped their cause. All that said, the team did have a better start and at the All-Star break sat in the 5th seed. A late season collapse with no goal scoring, and an untimely injury to defenseman Kurt Sauer, told the tale in the end. No playoffs in Phoenix. I think you can tell that I really wanted them there when I wrote the above in October. Just imagine how much I wanted them there after my favorite player was traded to them in March!!)
Columbus: "Every year for the last few, I've picked Columbus to make the playoffs. And no matter how much I want them to (and I do) and feel they do have a chance (I do), I am not sure if it's possible for all three of the last spots in the West to be filled with teams that failed to make the dance last year. Possible - of course. Probable - probably not. ....and Steve Mason if necessary and healthy, are enough to get it done. I do hope so. Honestly for myself, and for guys like Rick Nash and Manny Malhotra, I hope they do it. I’m just not sure if this is the year to see Phoenix, Chicago, AND Columbus all knock out practical perennial playoff teams like Colorado, and Minnesota." (Well, again, if I was ever happy to be wrong, it is with this team. I had been picking Columbus, like Florida in the East, for the last three years, and finally - FINALLY - they did it. Only I didn't pick 'em. Ribb me all you want. I'm just glad they got it done!)
Blues: "Thus, I know nothing really except I can’t imagine St. Louis will be much better, and I can’t imagine this team is in line for a playoff berth in an over talented and super saturated West." (Good for the Blues for proving me wrong. With the injuries this team has had, it is a big testament to the young guys there and their few lasting veterans that they were able to come through the West. Great job)
Final Thoughts:
So, in my mind, I thought Dallas, Detroit, San Jose, Calgary, and Anaheim were the shoo-ins. I thought Colorado would be the we've-been-there-before and here-we-are-again breed. And I thought Phoenix and Chicago would jump in. Obviously Dallas was an extreme overstep, as my feelings about Montreal were in the East. People can be wrong. I most definitely can be wrong. I'm very glad that Chicago, Columbus, and St. Louis were able to make it in to get some fresh blood out there. I really am. Now, next year, if it's Phoenix replacing one of the old steady and true guys, I am all for it. And how about Nashville having a good enough year to be chasing a 3 seed instead of falling short of an 8. Just some things I'd like to see. But, no, none of this fixes my horrendous picks, although, when all was said and done, I still picked 5 out of 8 correctly.
Sunday, April 12, 2009
My Regular Season Eastern Conference Predictions Analysis - The Good, The Bad, The Ugly. . .
Back in early October, I sat down to make regular season predictions on what teams would make the playoffs. Now, here at Natural Hat Trick Productions, we take a moment to step back and reflect on the best and worst of those for the Eastern Conference:
My predictions:
1) Montreal Canadiens
2) Washington Capitals
3) Philadelphia Flyers
4) Pittsburgh Penguins
5) Boston Bruins
6) New York Rangers
7) New Jersey Devils
8) Florida Panthers
In Reality:
1) Boston Bruins
2) Washington Capitals
3) New Jersey Devils
4) Pittsburgh Penguins
5) Philadelphia Flyers
6) Carolina Hurricanes
7) New York Rangers
8) Montreal Canadiens
First of all I got 7 out of 8 teams correct, which I think deserves a brief moment of applause. Clap, cla...okay, fine, this was the easier conference to predict, I think. I had Florida taking Ottawa's spot from last year. Instead, Carolina got hot and took it instead. But Florida was the next team in waiting and, Panthers fans, if it means anything, I was pulling hard for you guys. Not, mind you, at the expense of New York, but because it would have been a great thing to see.
The Caps and Pittsburgh were the only two teams I picked correctly in terms of order. I obviously, as did so many of us around the NHL, drink the koolaid of the masses and think Montreal was going to be the #1 seed for the second year in a row. Instead, they, like the Rangers, only secured a playoff spot with two games to go.
Now, let's take a moment to smile/laugh/nod/cringe at some of my thoughts on the East going into this season. There are some doozies.
Pat Me On The Back:
Flyers: "Philly performed better than expected and I expect no different this year...If this team doesn't compete for or win the division, I will be shocked." (Devils won the division, but both Pitt and Philly were only 7 points behind. Flyers improved from 95 points last year to 99 this year).
Devils - "I think they will gain some points on last year even if only because I just do not see them taking as few points as they did from the Rangers and Islanders last year. Isles will be worse and NJ did not like being the Rangers punching bag, and that’s enough incentive right there to win more games." (2007-08 - 99pts/46 wins; 2008-09 - 106pts/51 wins).
Isles: "There might not be too much to cheer about in Isleland this season. NYI - here are you tickets to the Jonathan Tavares sweepstakes. Don't lose 'em! Many will enter, one will win." (Isles - last place in league and best chance to land top pick in this year's draft)
Penguins: "And no. Miroslav Satan may not be the answer." (Enough said).
Rangers: "Honestly this is my hardest team to predict because if I had to guess, I’d say they have both the potential to be the best team in the East and the potential to fall flat on their faces. So, to be fair, I’ll go somewhere in between. The Rangers will be a playoff team, but they will not crack the top four." (seed #7)
Capitals: "I think the Capitals are going to be better than last year and definitely win the division. They might even challenge for one of the top two spots in the East, especially since I think they'll garner a lot of points playing against the likes of Tampa and Atlanta." (From 94 points last year to 108 this year, they have the #2 seed and are tops in the South East).
Thrashers: "Hard to pick a team I feel worse for than Atlanta...There will be no hockey playoffs in Georgia this year."
Maple Leafs: "When Ryan Hollweg and Jeff Finger are two of your only acquisitions in the off-season, well, it’s going to be a long year."
Bruins: "I seriously think, whether it’s Fernandez stepping in, Tim Thomas standing pat, or Tuukka Rask stepping up, this team can make it in nets. And Marc Savard as well as Marco Sturm are poised for high point totals this season as they did last year. I feel good about Boston’s chances. I think it’ll be a good year and people will be surprised." (Ignore the fact that Sturm was out with injury and played only 19 games this year, and the rest was spot on. The Bruins had two solid goalies (and even Rask shotout the Rangers.) Savard was awesome. And the Bruins surprised a lot of people. Just not me.)
Sabres: "I hope it’s a better year for Buffalo, but I think they’ll fall just short again." (Again, just short).
I'm Such a Moron:
Rangers: "Do I think this team will score more goals than last year? Last year there weren’t many goals to speak of and a power play to embarrass even the best of us all, but, it’s hard to say that they will score less with guys like Markus Naslund and Nik Zherdev, and hopefully a re-energized Chris Drury and Scott Gomez. So I’d have to assume that unless everyone has an awful year, they will score more." (And this from the person who thought their powerplay couldn't possibly be any worse either. *I want to bury head in sand*. Sure I just went through a nice little rant on why Naslund and Zherdev were assets to the team, but Gomez and Drury? And no one, not one player! - cracked 60 points on this team.)
Hurricanes: "The team doesn’t look that different but it seems miles away from the Cup win in 2006. I just don’t know. I can’t argue with Rod Brind’Amour’s leadership or Peter Laviolette’s style or even what I assume to be a great year for Eric Staal, who has just shored up a long, new contract to remain in NC. But… I just don’t think they have enough in them to knock someone out of the East." (Obviously RBA was a non-factor in terms of statistics, but he's still their leader, Laviolette was shown the door ealier this year, and they did make the playoffs. Of course, having Cole come back to the team DID kinda make everyone feel like it was 2006 all over again. So while I was right about Staal, but they did prove me wrong big time.)
Lightning: "In short, I think Tampa will not struggle to score goals... And despite my earlier uncertainty, their goalie situation seems to be in very good hands...Do I think they’ll be better than many think – yes." (At least I didn't think they'd actually make the playoffs. Unfortunatley for all involved, Tampa did very little to entertain. Melrose was not even there long enough to entertain!)
Canadiens: "In a year where there will be many ceremonies, including a banner raising for one Patrick Roy, the team will need to be sharp to keep the fans and the city happy. And, honestly, with minimal additions – Alex Tanguay, Robert Lang and Georges Laraques– and minimal departures – Mark Streit and Michael Ryder – I don’t see why they won’t. Montreal will easily, in my opinion, win the Northeast, and contend again for a top two spot in the conference." (I suppose I meant minimal in terms of not many in terms of departures, but my gosh, did the departure of Mark Streit hurt the Habs - and me, because he's on the WRONG New York team!! Their powerplay, once a lethal force, was pedestrian this year until Schneider came here late in the season. And, not so shockingly, the Islanders was pretty good. Wonder why? Tanguay and Lang were great pickups for the Habs, but when Lang went down with injury it hurt them big time. Laraques hardly ever saw the ice. They didn't see good or consistent effort from nearly enough players this year and that is why they not only didn't even challenge Boston for the top spot in the division, they barely even made the playoffs. I was sooooooo very wrong about this team. True, I was not alone, but I couldn't have been more wrong.)
Ottawa: "I for one think Heatley will have a career year....You just can't rely on one team and one defensive pairing. Not in this league. I see them perhaps coming just short this year." (Ottawa, despite hanging on still as of two weeks ago, really didn't come "just short" so I have to put this in the moron pile even though I didn't pick them. And as for Heatley, his 39G/33A/72P/-11 were really horrible considering the fanatastic years he has had).
Neither/Nor:
Panthers: "Maybe they’ll be better, by addition through subtraction. But I feel it. If it can happen to the Tampa Rays, why not to the Florida Panthers. Playoffs in Florida? Maybe!" (This doesn't fall in either grouping. I said they'd maybe make the playoffs. Again, I still feel badly they couldn't get it done. I will hope again for them next year and every year until they do return to the second season.)
Overall, I know I did a much better job with the East than the West (maybe not surprisingly). I think in spite of all the ups and downs of a season, injuries and surprise players, picking 7 out of 8 teams that make the playoffs is a good record. I'll take it. And, too, with the three point games, not too much movement was made. If you went back a month, Florida held the last playoff spot. Carolina only ousted Florida in the last few weeks. Otherwise, my picks would have been perfect.
Also worth noting, I do get credit for the following statement:
"I think the Atlantic division will be the toughest and will have the most
representatives going to the playoffs of any in the East."
With NJ, Philly, Pitt, and New York, the Atlantic has four teams going to the playoffs. Southeast (Wash, Canes) and NorthEast (Bruins, Habs) each have two.
I realize this is not the most unique of thoughts and this has been the way, for three years now, but I have to grab credit where I can. ;)
Tomorrow, I'll try to do the West prediction analysis and before Wednesday, I'll run through some brief some playoff predictions too. Some fantastic matchups to look forward to, that's for sure!
My predictions:
1) Montreal Canadiens
2) Washington Capitals
3) Philadelphia Flyers
4) Pittsburgh Penguins
5) Boston Bruins
6) New York Rangers
7) New Jersey Devils
8) Florida Panthers
In Reality:
1) Boston Bruins
2) Washington Capitals
3) New Jersey Devils
4) Pittsburgh Penguins
5) Philadelphia Flyers
6) Carolina Hurricanes
7) New York Rangers
8) Montreal Canadiens
First of all I got 7 out of 8 teams correct, which I think deserves a brief moment of applause. Clap, cla...okay, fine, this was the easier conference to predict, I think. I had Florida taking Ottawa's spot from last year. Instead, Carolina got hot and took it instead. But Florida was the next team in waiting and, Panthers fans, if it means anything, I was pulling hard for you guys. Not, mind you, at the expense of New York, but because it would have been a great thing to see.
The Caps and Pittsburgh were the only two teams I picked correctly in terms of order. I obviously, as did so many of us around the NHL, drink the koolaid of the masses and think Montreal was going to be the #1 seed for the second year in a row. Instead, they, like the Rangers, only secured a playoff spot with two games to go.
Now, let's take a moment to smile/laugh/nod/cringe at some of my thoughts on the East going into this season. There are some doozies.
Pat Me On The Back:
Flyers: "Philly performed better than expected and I expect no different this year...If this team doesn't compete for or win the division, I will be shocked." (Devils won the division, but both Pitt and Philly were only 7 points behind. Flyers improved from 95 points last year to 99 this year).
Devils - "I think they will gain some points on last year even if only because I just do not see them taking as few points as they did from the Rangers and Islanders last year. Isles will be worse and NJ did not like being the Rangers punching bag, and that’s enough incentive right there to win more games." (2007-08 - 99pts/46 wins; 2008-09 - 106pts/51 wins).
Isles: "There might not be too much to cheer about in Isleland this season. NYI - here are you tickets to the Jonathan Tavares sweepstakes. Don't lose 'em! Many will enter, one will win." (Isles - last place in league and best chance to land top pick in this year's draft)
Penguins: "And no. Miroslav Satan may not be the answer." (Enough said).
Rangers: "Honestly this is my hardest team to predict because if I had to guess, I’d say they have both the potential to be the best team in the East and the potential to fall flat on their faces. So, to be fair, I’ll go somewhere in between. The Rangers will be a playoff team, but they will not crack the top four." (seed #7)
Capitals: "I think the Capitals are going to be better than last year and definitely win the division. They might even challenge for one of the top two spots in the East, especially since I think they'll garner a lot of points playing against the likes of Tampa and Atlanta." (From 94 points last year to 108 this year, they have the #2 seed and are tops in the South East).
Thrashers: "Hard to pick a team I feel worse for than Atlanta...There will be no hockey playoffs in Georgia this year."
Maple Leafs: "When Ryan Hollweg and Jeff Finger are two of your only acquisitions in the off-season, well, it’s going to be a long year."
Bruins: "I seriously think, whether it’s Fernandez stepping in, Tim Thomas standing pat, or Tuukka Rask stepping up, this team can make it in nets. And Marc Savard as well as Marco Sturm are poised for high point totals this season as they did last year. I feel good about Boston’s chances. I think it’ll be a good year and people will be surprised." (Ignore the fact that Sturm was out with injury and played only 19 games this year, and the rest was spot on. The Bruins had two solid goalies (and even Rask shotout the Rangers.) Savard was awesome. And the Bruins surprised a lot of people. Just not me.)
Sabres: "I hope it’s a better year for Buffalo, but I think they’ll fall just short again." (Again, just short).
I'm Such a Moron:
Rangers: "Do I think this team will score more goals than last year? Last year there weren’t many goals to speak of and a power play to embarrass even the best of us all, but, it’s hard to say that they will score less with guys like Markus Naslund and Nik Zherdev, and hopefully a re-energized Chris Drury and Scott Gomez. So I’d have to assume that unless everyone has an awful year, they will score more." (And this from the person who thought their powerplay couldn't possibly be any worse either. *I want to bury head in sand*. Sure I just went through a nice little rant on why Naslund and Zherdev were assets to the team, but Gomez and Drury? And no one, not one player! - cracked 60 points on this team.)
Hurricanes: "The team doesn’t look that different but it seems miles away from the Cup win in 2006. I just don’t know. I can’t argue with Rod Brind’Amour’s leadership or Peter Laviolette’s style or even what I assume to be a great year for Eric Staal, who has just shored up a long, new contract to remain in NC. But… I just don’t think they have enough in them to knock someone out of the East." (Obviously RBA was a non-factor in terms of statistics, but he's still their leader, Laviolette was shown the door ealier this year, and they did make the playoffs. Of course, having Cole come back to the team DID kinda make everyone feel like it was 2006 all over again. So while I was right about Staal, but they did prove me wrong big time.)
Lightning: "In short, I think Tampa will not struggle to score goals... And despite my earlier uncertainty, their goalie situation seems to be in very good hands...Do I think they’ll be better than many think – yes." (At least I didn't think they'd actually make the playoffs. Unfortunatley for all involved, Tampa did very little to entertain. Melrose was not even there long enough to entertain!)
Canadiens: "In a year where there will be many ceremonies, including a banner raising for one Patrick Roy, the team will need to be sharp to keep the fans and the city happy. And, honestly, with minimal additions – Alex Tanguay, Robert Lang and Georges Laraques– and minimal departures – Mark Streit and Michael Ryder – I don’t see why they won’t. Montreal will easily, in my opinion, win the Northeast, and contend again for a top two spot in the conference." (I suppose I meant minimal in terms of not many in terms of departures, but my gosh, did the departure of Mark Streit hurt the Habs - and me, because he's on the WRONG New York team!! Their powerplay, once a lethal force, was pedestrian this year until Schneider came here late in the season. And, not so shockingly, the Islanders was pretty good. Wonder why? Tanguay and Lang were great pickups for the Habs, but when Lang went down with injury it hurt them big time. Laraques hardly ever saw the ice. They didn't see good or consistent effort from nearly enough players this year and that is why they not only didn't even challenge Boston for the top spot in the division, they barely even made the playoffs. I was sooooooo very wrong about this team. True, I was not alone, but I couldn't have been more wrong.)
Ottawa: "I for one think Heatley will have a career year....You just can't rely on one team and one defensive pairing. Not in this league. I see them perhaps coming just short this year." (Ottawa, despite hanging on still as of two weeks ago, really didn't come "just short" so I have to put this in the moron pile even though I didn't pick them. And as for Heatley, his 39G/33A/72P/-11 were really horrible considering the fanatastic years he has had).
Neither/Nor:
Panthers: "Maybe they’ll be better, by addition through subtraction. But I feel it. If it can happen to the Tampa Rays, why not to the Florida Panthers. Playoffs in Florida? Maybe!" (This doesn't fall in either grouping. I said they'd maybe make the playoffs. Again, I still feel badly they couldn't get it done. I will hope again for them next year and every year until they do return to the second season.)
Overall, I know I did a much better job with the East than the West (maybe not surprisingly). I think in spite of all the ups and downs of a season, injuries and surprise players, picking 7 out of 8 teams that make the playoffs is a good record. I'll take it. And, too, with the three point games, not too much movement was made. If you went back a month, Florida held the last playoff spot. Carolina only ousted Florida in the last few weeks. Otherwise, my picks would have been perfect.
Also worth noting, I do get credit for the following statement:
"I think the Atlantic division will be the toughest and will have the most
representatives going to the playoffs of any in the East."
With NJ, Philly, Pitt, and New York, the Atlantic has four teams going to the playoffs. Southeast (Wash, Canes) and NorthEast (Bruins, Habs) each have two.
I realize this is not the most unique of thoughts and this has been the way, for three years now, but I have to grab credit where I can. ;)
Tomorrow, I'll try to do the West prediction analysis and before Wednesday, I'll run through some brief some playoff predictions too. Some fantastic matchups to look forward to, that's for sure!
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