Okay, okay, I should have gone the other way. Done the easier East over the more difficult West. But that's not how it played out, folks. So, here you get my day two of predictions, an unsure and un-committed, best guess scenario of how things will play out West this year. . .
Northwest:
MIN: even to worse
COL: even
EDM: even to slightly better
CAL: even
VAN: worse
Pacific:
DAL: even to better
SJS: better
LAK: can you say they can get worse from worst? eh. . .worse
ANA: even to better
PHX: better
Central:
DET: better (if possible)
CHI: better
CBJ: even
STL: worse
NAS: worse
And now the hopefully shorter than the East but still quite wordy Western analysis:
Wild - I like the Wild. But. . .Marian Gaborik, the Ranger killer, has not proven he can stay healthy. If he were healthy, he'd produce seasons like Henrik Zetterburg and Pavel Datsyuk did in Detroit. He is a very good, and very underrated player. But, when you are not healthy, you are not noticed. That, coupled with the departures of Pavol Demitra, and Brian Rolston, makes me think this team will not be as good as years past. They still have Pierre-Marc Bouchard, but even his production tailed off last season if I remember correctly. I have been a fan of the other Nicklas Backstrom, the goalie, but I am not sure how I see it playing out this time around. He had an up and down year. A lot was up and down in Minnesota last year and they did make a rather quick exit. Not sure I'd bank on the Wild in what will be a tough race in the West this year.
Avalanche - I guess I figure it would have to be either the Wild or the Avalanche making the playoffs this year. Don't think they'd both miss it. And I just might have to go on the side of Colorado. Young guys who had good years within the last two, like Marek Svatos and Paul Stastny, will need to keep up goal production. Joe Sakic will need to stay healthy. Peter Budaj has been rather solid in nets, though; more so than I thought. I'm not sure I even have a reason, but if I had to hazard a guess, I'd say Colorado steps in. And remember, I'm still looking forward to some Darcy Tucker / Sean Avery antics when the Stars come to town. Worth watching at least.
Oilers - I actually struggle with Edmonton on this analysis. They actually almost made the playoffs last year. Had a monster comeback in the second half of the year. And that should be credited. Guys like Sam Gagner came out of nowhere to do big things for the team. Led by a bunch of young guys who know one knows, in fact. Figure, if Dwayne Roloson can keep the group in it, if he stays, and Sheldon Souray can be the power play quarterback the Oil signed last year, maybe they do have a shot. In my mind there are four or five probable-to-definite picks for the West, and the other three spots are up for grabs. I wouldn't count the Oilers out of it, but that's really going to be anyone's guess.
Flames - I like the Flames. I don't think you can go wrong with an offense centered around I-can-do-everything-posterboy Jarome Iginla. But he can't do it himself. Kristian Huselius has departed for Columbus; Alex Tanguay for Montreal. Guys like Mike Cammalleri, Craig Conroy and Daymond Langkow will really have to step up. And don’t forget, they still have one of the best goalies in the league with Miikka Kiprusoff and one of the best D-men in Dion Phanuef. They will also benefit from taking points from presumably Minnesota and Vancouver. I really think this is the toughest division to predict. Any of these teams or perhaps only the one that the league mandates has to, might make the playoffs this year. I don't see why Calgary isn't my front-runner though, on experience and the last few years alone. But I think anything can happen in the NW division.
Vancouver - I can’t in good consciousness say Vancouver will be better this year. They lost Markus Naslund to free agency, Trevor Linden to retirement, and have just named their goalie (yes, again, their goalie) to be team Captain. True, their goalie will keep them in games they shouldn't be in. But this team struggled embarrassingly to score goals last year. It was horrible for him. Who is going to step up? Pavol Demitra will help. Those Sedin twins do what they can. Some of the young guys, like Ryan Kesler and Taylor Pyatt, will provide some, but honestly, I don't think it will be enough. Colorado, Calgary, Edmonton, and perhaps even Minnesota will average more goals. I sadly don't see how this team makes the playoffs. Mats Sundin, the wanted savior, might not have been able to provide enough on his own to save this team. Canuckville, you are in my thoughts.
Pacific:
Stars - I am excited to see how the Stars do this year and more confident than last year that they will do well. Marty Turco slayed some demons with his solid performance in nets during the playoffs. Brendan Morrow was a honest-to-goodness beast when it counted. Haven't seen that from him in quite some time. Brad Richards started to find his stride and will get to test his first full year for the black, green, and gold. And my favorite and yours, Sean Avery, who is already ruffling feathers all throughout the Western Conference, gets to pal up with (or against) agitator Steve Ott. Nice. The only major setback I see is that Sergei Zubov, the most underrated defenseman over the last decade or more, is still suffering the ills of off-season hip surgery, and will not start the season. If he gets healthy or even comes back at 50%, he's better than most in the game. I think Dallas will flourish this year.
Sharks - The classic example of just some piece missing from the puzzle. Perhaps this will be edition by subtraction. Ron Wilson is testing his patience in Toronto. A new coach has taken the helm. But I refuse to believe that a team with Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Jonathan Cheechoo will struggle to score, although we've all seen it. Subtract one Brian Campbell, add one Dan Boyle, who is looking to resurrect and be the top offensive D-man he proved he could be in Tampa, and you have a team. A plethora of young talent like Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Ryan Clowe, Milan Michalek, and Joe Pavelski, are primed for good years. This team seems poised. Not to mention anything of my favorite for Vezina this year, the man who was robbed last year, Evgeni Nabokov. Not many are better. The guy was a machine last year. Expect no different in this. I expect San Jose and Dallas to fight to the end for the division title, although I'm not sure either will knock Detroit from the top step.
Kings - I think I'm going to be watching some Kings games again this year. I am excited to see how the young talent continues to develop - Anze Kopitar, Alexander Frolov, Patrick O'Sullivan. And who will be in nets for the team - always a mystery. They are missing Rob Blake this year on D, so they got if we can all believe it, even younger. They are missing a lot, no one is denying. No one expects much, but perhaps that is when you can surprise. I think they'll score a lot and give up a lot, but you know what - I think they'll be better than last year, points wise at least. Playoffs, unfortunately, not a good chance at all.
Ducks - I have to assume the Ducks will be at least as good as they were last year, if not better, as they will have Scott Neidermeyer and Teemu Selanne for the entire season this go around. And I never argue with a team that boasts perennial All-Star J.S. Giguere in nets. But I don’t think Anaheim will be able to beat Dallas or San Jose for the division. I still think they lack something. And it it's young talent, for both Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry should have good seasons. It's not for veteran leadership as like-him-or-hate-him Chris Pronger is there, although not the captain this go around. I am not sure. But this team is one of my bets to make the playoffs. And probably to be angry enough to go further than last year's quick exit.
Coyotes - The desert dogs. Hmm. I really like their chances at being one of those bottom three surprise teams to squeeze into the playoffs. They almost did it last year and I was rooting for them, trust me. I think having Ilya Bryzgalov for a full year in nets might make the difference. He is a premiere goalie when he's needed to be, and I see him really making a difference for this young team. Shane Doan quietly had a big numbers year last year. And never count out Ed Jovanovski to help on the power play. Patrick Mueller had an impressive rookie campaign as well. Honestly, I think things are looking brighter in Phoenix and perhaps, bright enough to bring the maroon and white into the promised second season. Out of the could-be-there, these might be my favorites.
Central:
Red Wings - I couldn't criticize this team last year. I knew if Nashville didn't beat them, they would probably go all the way. And as you well know, they did. Considering their biggest loss was a guy that in the end did not play for them in the last few rounds of the playoffs - the now retired HOF goalie Dominik Hasek - I am not sure how they won't top the West once again. And not only did they not suffer big losses, they got the big add of the summer with signing Marian Hossa from the Penguins. Yep. Really hard to imagine them not sailing right through to the playoffs, although, let it be said, Chicago played them tough last year and will be better this year and Nashville was always a tough game as well. They probably will not have as many points in what should be a more difficult division. But, really, who cares. Bottom line: Red Wings will be playoff bound.
Blackhawks - Here's hoping, and it might just be a reality, the only other non-successful original six team besides the New York Rangers, will see a fast rise to glory this year. A lot changed with the Blackhawks in a short time. They got two of the best young studs in the game - Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane (ROY). Their long time owner died and the son saw fit to finally put home games on local TV. And around that time, the team got good. Very good. Add Brian Campbell. A goaltending battle, and an answer to the popular off-season debate, Cristobal Huehhh or HueT? Also, add a hopefully (seriously now!) healthy Marty Havlat, and perhaps this is the year. Again, the West is tough, perhaps tougher than last year, but if I had to pick, I'd say Chicago gets it done. Or at least makes it very, very interesting. Next to Washington, Chicago is my best bet for entertaining hockey to watch this year. Enjoy the Kane/Toews pairing while you can, guys. This is greatness in the making!
Blue Jackets - Every year for the last few, I've picked Columbus to make the playoffs. And no matter how much I want them to (and I do) and feel they do have a chance (I do), I am not sure if it's possible for all three of the last spots in the West to be filled with teams that failed to make the dance last year. Possible - of course. Probable - probably not. But if Rick Nash regains his brilliance (more fo that legendary goal stuff like we saw against Phoenix), they'll be going in a good direction. Nik Zherdev and Dan Fritsche are out. Kristian Huselius and Philadelphia's R.J Umberger are in. I do see this team improving offensively. Defensively, they aren't bad, but they are staggeringly young. Even younger than in past years. I’m just not sure if this team has it from that end. True, Pascal LeClaire had a career year for shutouts. Freddy Noreena saw good time the year before. Hopefully they, and Steve Mason if necessary and healthy, are enough to get it done. I do hope so. Honestly for myself, and for guys like Rick Nash and Manny Malhotra, I hope they do it. I’m just not sure if this is the year to see Phoenix, Chicago, AND Columbus all knock out practical perennial playoff teams like Colorado, and Minnesota.
Blues – I’ve got the Blues? I . . . am not really sure what to say about them. This is one of the few teams I know hardly anything about. Despite a promise I made myself at the All-Star break to watch more Blues games because Manny Legace was hilarious, I did not. Too many teams and too little time. Thus, I know nothing really except I can’t imagine St. Louis will be much better, and I can’t imagine this team is in line for a playoff berth in an over talented and super saturated West. An injury to young gun Erik Johnson, and in the worst of ways (ie: golf cart incident on team golf outing day) might have been a season demise foretold right there. See you next year, I hope.
Predators – Last but not least, a team I actually rather enjoyed watching last year – Nashville. I felt they could beat Detroit and they made it interesting for a moment, but I’m not sure the team that has just seemed to sneak in the last few years, will do it again this year. They will have to be better and have to generate more points in a tougher central division. And I’m not sure they do it. Dan Ellis should still be good, and I hope he is. J.P. Dumont is always ready for a good year, when in the lineup. I don’t really know what else to speculate. I am just going on a hunch that they don’t make it. If they do, I’m happy. But I’m just not sure it’s not someone else’s turn. And as a Rangers fan, I hope Jed Ortmeyer gets better and back in the lineup real soon.
Okay, the West is analyzed and I feel seriously much less sure of these picks than I do of the Eastern ones, but no more stalling, here we go:
1) Detroit
2) San Jose
3) Calgary
4) Dallas
5) Anaheim
6) Colorado
7) Phoenix
8) Chicago
Narrow misses for Edmonton and Columbus, although I see both of those teams, or potentially Nashville, and maybe even Minnesota stepping in! But urgh – I will stand by my predictions. I can’t be any worse than the people that do this professionally, can I? Montreal – from last to first. Rangers – from worst to best. It’s a hard world we live in, hockey predictors, that is. And I’m just trying to makea best stab at it for the fun of it all.
Honestly, I just hope it’s as fun and exciting a season as last year with really tough battles in both conferences.
I won’t predict it; I’ll just hope for it. :)
Showing posts with label 2008-2009 season. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2008-2009 season. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
2008-2009 Eastern Conference Predictions
Welcome to my Eastern Conference predictions for this, the 2008-2009 NHL season. Without fear of mockery or hatred, ribbin or worse, I present to you..., well, probably the most unfounded and un-based in fact predictions ever given. We'll I guess I honestly feel they are based both in my reason and with my own little hunches in mind. But do not go taking these to any pools, all right.
This year I approached the challenge a little differently. I did not read any other predictions - my Hockey News, ESPN.com, TSN.ca or the like. I went through all the teams in the East in my head and asked myself if I thought they'd be better, worse, or about even with last year. And from that, I hazarded to guess which teams would be playoff bound. So first:
Atlantic:
PHI - better
NJD - even
NYI - worse
PIT - even
NYR - crapshoot! Uh I meant even.
Southeast:
WAS - better
CAR - even to worse
ATL - worse
TBL - even to worse
FLA - better
Northeast:
TOR - worse
MTL - better
OTT - are we going on the start of last season or the end of it - eh - even
BOS - better
BUF - worse
And now, to analyze a little:
Flyers - after finishing the 2006-2007 season dead last, not many expected the 2007-2008 team to be as good as they were. Credit coach John Stevens and GM Paul Holmgren with making some good moves. Philly performed better than expected and I expect no different this year. Marty Biron and Danny Briere will have a year under their belts. New captain Mike Richards will continue to develop. A batch of young guys who stood up when key players went down with injury last year will be expected to take on bigger roles. Simon Gagne has hopefully been given enough rest. If this team doesn't compete for or win the division, I will be shocked.
Devils - Last season I picked NJ to miss the playoffs entirely, only to have them squeak in ahead of NY by a point. I think they will gain some points on last year even if only because I just do not see them taking as few points as they did from the Rangers and Islanders last year. Isles will be worse and NJ did not like being the Rangers punching bag, and that’s enough incentive right there to win more games. Do I like the signings of Bobby Holik and Brian Rolston - yes. Do I think they make them a remarkably better team - no. But Brodeur is Brodeur (first round of last years playoffs and Sean Avery antics aside) and until that is no longer so, I cannot bet against NJ sneaking in.
Islanders - Can they forfeit now? Uh. I feel badly for them if Rick DiPietro is a) seriously hurt or b) ruined for his career. The management at large made a lengthy commitment to their guy in nets and to be honest I have no clue who is waiting in the wings. While the Isles were giving away draft picks on draft day, maybe they should have been preparing for the days after DP - and they might have come sooner than we all think. Although one pre-season game does not a season foretell and maybe DP will be fine. But DP or not - Dougie Weight, the biggest of-season name to join the Isles, is not a savior. There might not be too much to cheer about in Isleland this season. NYI - here are you tickets to the Jonathan Tavares sweepstakes. Don't lose 'em! Many will enter, few will win.
Penguins - To bet that the Penguins will not be a high scoring and playoff bound team would be absurd. Its not as if both Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby will forget how to score. And last year even when Crosby went down with his high ankle injury, Malkin stepped up and over the bar. Plus they still have guys like Jordan Staal and Pascal Dupuis. I think their defense will suffer a bit though. Ryan Malone is gone and Sergei Gonchar, who is very underrated, will miss the entire season. Brooks Orpik cannot do it alone. And no. Miroslav Satan may not be the answer. But - the team will not be bad. They can't be. They will score plenty. And Marc Andre Fleury, who got me to be a believer in last year’s playoffs, will keep them in games. He can't do it alone, no. But he shouldn't have to. There will be playoff hockey though in the Steel City, rest assured.
Rangers – Honestly, I think the Atlantic division will be the toughest and will have the most representatives going to the playoffs of any in the East. But my questions start and end with this team in NY. My team. I am putting aside the first two games in Prague. Basket them. They will probably mean nothing in a week anyway. Do I think this team will score more goals than last year? Last year there weren’t many goals to speak of and a power play to embarrass even the best of us all, but, it’s hard to say that they will score less with guys like Markus Naslund and Nik Zherdev, and hopefully a re-energized Chris Drury and Scott Gomez. So I’d have to assume that unless everyone has an awful year, they will score more. And if they score more, and some of these guys hit their strides in NY, they’ll be dangerous. Do I think we’ll be as defensively strong as last year? They better be, if they want to win 2-1 games. But, yet, I’m still not sure how I feel about Wade Redden and Dmitri Kalinin, and although I like Marc Staal and Dan Girardi, I'm not sure they can carry this team yet. And carrying only six defensemen? I wanted Corey Potter on this team. Think that might be a mistake for the Bluehsirts. And yet despite all that, I think guys like Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan, and Lauri Korpikoski can flourish under this new system of speed and energy. But, eh. Honestly this is my hardest team to predict because if I had to guess, I’d say they have both the potential to be the best team in the East and the potential to fall flat on their faces. So, to be fair, I’ll go somewhere in between. The Rangers will be a playoff team, but they will not crack the top four.
Southeast:
Capitals – Oh to be young, Russian, and in the American capital city. Whooo! I am very excited to see this year’s Capitals team. With reigning scoring champion Alex Ovechkin and supporting crew of Mike Green, Nick Backstrom, Alexander Semin and Sergei Federov returning, look out! A healthy Michael Nylander will be an improvement over last year. My only question is in goal – one Jose Theodore. But, you know, I really think Washington is one of those teams that can and might have to depend on winning 5-4, 6-3 games this year. And they can do it. I think the Capitals are going to be better than last year and definitely win the division. They might even challenge for one of the top two spots in the East, especially since I think they'll garner a lot of points playing against the likes of Tampa and Atlanta. So, game on in the nation’s capital. Game on!
Hurricanes – Obviously Carolina came within a game and a night of making the playoffs last year. But that felt like the longest distance for them, I'm sure. A year should be enough to turn the team around, but with key injuries to Justin Williams and Scott Walker it will be tough. Erik Cole has departed to Edmonton. The team doesn’t look that different but it seems miles away from the Cup win in 2006. I just don’t know. I can’t argue with Rod Brind’Amour’s leadership or Peter Laviolette’s style or even what I assume to be a great year for Eric Staal, who has just shored up a long, new contract to remain in NC. But… I just don’t think they have enough in them to knock someone out of the East. Hope it’s competitive though and hope I get down to RBC again this year. Beautiful arena and the best burgers ever!
Lightning – Oh, boy. Where to begin? In short, I think Tampa will not struggle to score goals. A healthy Vinny LeCavalier and a new stud named Steven Stamkos should be enough alone to ensure goals are scored. Add in a Martin St. Louis and a Vinny Prospal. They will most likely score goals. And despite my earlier uncertainty, their goalie situation seems to be in very good hands. Six to be exact – two each of Mike Smith, Karri Ramo, and the veteran Olie Kolzig. However, and I touched upon it in my last blog, there seems to be no plan on defense. And that will kill you in a defensively stingy East. Do I think they’ll entertain – yes. Do I think they’ll be better than many think – yes. Do I think they’ll make the playoffs – no. Not this year in Tampa. But at least we all have Vinny L to stare at. And, hey, although massively underage, Stamkos is not bad either. And probably the most eloquent rookie I’ve seen in a long time. His interview when the Rangers went down to Tampa – highly impressive. Tampa will be good. Just not that good so soon. Oh but as if #4 and #91 weren't enough reason to watch - you have coach Barry Melrose behind the helm. Those post game interviews will pay the price of admission alone.
Thrashers - Hard to pick a team I feel worse for than Atlanta. I really cannot think of one bright spot, besides Ilya Kovalchuk, that will get fans through this long, long season. Slava Kozlov should toss in a few goals. And it will be interesting to see how and if young Zach Bogosian stays with the big club this year. The only other thing of note is that Mathieu Schneider will provide some veteran leadership on D. But for a team that lost Marian Hossa at trade deadline and that must know they are just one or two more bad seasons from losing Kovalchuk as well, it’s hard to smile. I’ll also be curious to see how the goaltending tandem of Johan Hedberg, who I love, and Kari Lehtonen, who has shown flashes of brilliance and shocks of reality, fare. The first every playoff appearance and subsequent four game sweep at the hands of the Rangers might as well have been a decade ago. There will be no hockey playoffs in Georgia this year.
Panthers – Despite picking Florida a year or two ago (or perhaps every year) to make the playoffs and consistently being given a dose of reality, I am going to go out on a limb and say that, yes, they will be better this year. Tomas Vokoun is going to have a better year and he might have to carry them. As long as Jay Bouwmeester remains in South Florida – a big TBD – he will be a better player. And yes, captain Oli Jokinen has gone to Phoenix. But. . .maybe they’ll be better for it. Something was always missing in Florida. Just one or two small pieces. Maybe they’ll be better, by addition through subtraction. But I feel it. If it can happen to the Tampa Rays, why not to the Florida Panthers. Playoffs in Florida? Maybe!
Northeast:
TOR – Oh Luke Schenn. Welcome to the Blue and White and welcome to what should be a disappointing year in the GTA. And no, not for you. I’m excited to see you play. But for the rest of that team, I have no idea what to think. Insulting their captain Mats Sundin to the point he has no clue whether he is coming or going, although be sure, he is not coming back to Toronto. Long time defenseman Brian McCabe has bailed for Florida. Mike Van Ryn steps in. When Ryan Hollweg and Jeff Finger are two of your only acquisitions in the off-season, well, it’s going to be a long year. Familiar sight on Ontario ice – Curtis Joseph for the Leafs. One more time with the Matthew Wilder lyrics “oh, no, Cujo. Maple Leafs gonna keep on losing. . .” Kidding Cujo, kidding. Well, no, they will keep on losing, but I sadly don’t think there is anything you or Vesa Toskala can do about it.
Les Canadiens - I hear a lot of chatter from Montreal. And no one wants or needs the team to be better than the fans of this, hockey's most storied franchise. And, of course, in this, their 100th season, the pressure has never been greater. They will need another banner year from Alex Kovalev, a solid effort from captain Saku Koivu, good years from young ones, Tomas Plekanec, the Kostitsyns, Christopher Higgins, Michael Komisarek and Guilluame Latendresse, and of course a stellar year from young goalie of the new millennium, Carey Price. In a year where there will be many ceremonies, including a banner raising for one Patrick Roy, the team will need to be sharp to keep the fans and the city happy. And, honestly, with minimal additions – Alex Tanguay, Robert Lang and Georges Laraques– and minimal departures – Mark Streit and Michael Ryder – I don’t see why they won’t. Montreal will easily, in my opinion, win the Northeast, and contend again for a top two spot in the conference.
Senators – The team I am not going to give as much credit to as I probably should. And here we begin. I would never want to bet against a team that has the trio of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley. I for one think Heatley will have a career year. I really do. But, we've seen what happens when that one line stops scoring. Disaster! And I am not convinced Marty Gerber can get it done in nets. Although Alex Auld was impressive in what I’ve seen of him. And their defense boasts an Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips pairing that cannot play all 60 minutes. And I’m not as impressed with their other D. When Vonchenkov was injured, the Senators felt the loss of their top shot blocker. And I’m not sure who steps in. Maybe it’s the memory of the monumental collapse that has my view skewed, but I am not sure this team makes the playoffs. If they do, they are a seven or an eight seed. And maybe that’s short-sided, because I do think they’ll obviously gain points from the less than stellar years I assume Toronto and Buffalo will be having, but Montreal and Boston are surely going to take it to them. You just can't rely on one team and one defensive pairing. Not in this league. I see them perhaps coming just short this year.
Bruins – Last fall I told people in Boston that their team would improve. Maybe not as much as I thought and certainly not with the goalie I thought (Manny Fernandez went down with injury pretty early on) but they did make strides. And whether fans of the Habs can admit it, they were VERY close to being sent home at the hands of this Boston team. I seriously think, whether it’s Fernandez stepping in, Tim Thomas standing pat, or Tuukka Rask stepping up, this team can make it in nets. And Marc Savard as well as Marco Sturm are poised for high point totals this season as they did last year. Patrice Bergeron being back and thankfully healthy will only help. Their defense is not full of big names, but I’ve watched these guys shut down the Rangers time and again. I feel good about Boston’s chances. I think it’ll be a good year and people will be surprised.
Sabres – While I don’t feel as bad for the Sabres as I do for the Thrashers, I still feel for them. Almost two and a half years removed from a Eastern Conference Finals appearance to missing the playoffs entirely. It hasn’t been good in Buffalo, financially or otherwise. Thankfully, they still have Ryan Miller and Derek Roy. Miller, when on, is one of the better goalies in the league and can help them win. Roy had a monster breakout season last year and I’m counting on this year to be more of the same. However, that might be the two most exciting things to mention. Pretty much all the names are the same, and yet the feeling that surrounded this team two years ago is gone. I just don’t see where the firepower will come from. I hope it’s a better year for Buffalo, but I think they’ll fall just short again. Here’s hoping Tim Connolly and Teppo Numminen have good healthy years though.
Okay, yes, I know, I got wordier than I wanted to. But, without further ado, my playoff predictions are:
1) Montreal Canadiens
2) Washington Capitals
3) Philadelphia Flyers
4) Pittsburgh Penguins
5) Boston Bruins
6) New York Rangers
7) New Jersey Devils
8) Florida Panthers
The order, of course, I am not so sure about. As if I’d am sure about any of it – ha! These are merely guesses. Probably some safe ones, but some risky ones (Florida over Ottawa) as well. But I’ll take it. Just don’t you take it to the bank!
Stay tuned for the Western preview and predictions at some point in the next day or two.
I'm out.
**Authors's note: If you get the chance to catch XM204's Hockey Confidential with Kevin Weekes, do so. What a GREAT interview. Maybe I'm biased because I always liked the guy, but he's as eloquent as they come. A great obeserver of the game, with a great attitude. And such a genuinely nice and charitible person. Good for him. **
This year I approached the challenge a little differently. I did not read any other predictions - my Hockey News, ESPN.com, TSN.ca or the like. I went through all the teams in the East in my head and asked myself if I thought they'd be better, worse, or about even with last year. And from that, I hazarded to guess which teams would be playoff bound. So first:
Atlantic:
PHI - better
NJD - even
NYI - worse
PIT - even
NYR - crapshoot! Uh I meant even.
Southeast:
WAS - better
CAR - even to worse
ATL - worse
TBL - even to worse
FLA - better
Northeast:
TOR - worse
MTL - better
OTT - are we going on the start of last season or the end of it - eh - even
BOS - better
BUF - worse
And now, to analyze a little:
Flyers - after finishing the 2006-2007 season dead last, not many expected the 2007-2008 team to be as good as they were. Credit coach John Stevens and GM Paul Holmgren with making some good moves. Philly performed better than expected and I expect no different this year. Marty Biron and Danny Briere will have a year under their belts. New captain Mike Richards will continue to develop. A batch of young guys who stood up when key players went down with injury last year will be expected to take on bigger roles. Simon Gagne has hopefully been given enough rest. If this team doesn't compete for or win the division, I will be shocked.
Devils - Last season I picked NJ to miss the playoffs entirely, only to have them squeak in ahead of NY by a point. I think they will gain some points on last year even if only because I just do not see them taking as few points as they did from the Rangers and Islanders last year. Isles will be worse and NJ did not like being the Rangers punching bag, and that’s enough incentive right there to win more games. Do I like the signings of Bobby Holik and Brian Rolston - yes. Do I think they make them a remarkably better team - no. But Brodeur is Brodeur (first round of last years playoffs and Sean Avery antics aside) and until that is no longer so, I cannot bet against NJ sneaking in.
Islanders - Can they forfeit now? Uh. I feel badly for them if Rick DiPietro is a) seriously hurt or b) ruined for his career. The management at large made a lengthy commitment to their guy in nets and to be honest I have no clue who is waiting in the wings. While the Isles were giving away draft picks on draft day, maybe they should have been preparing for the days after DP - and they might have come sooner than we all think. Although one pre-season game does not a season foretell and maybe DP will be fine. But DP or not - Dougie Weight, the biggest of-season name to join the Isles, is not a savior. There might not be too much to cheer about in Isleland this season. NYI - here are you tickets to the Jonathan Tavares sweepstakes. Don't lose 'em! Many will enter, few will win.
Penguins - To bet that the Penguins will not be a high scoring and playoff bound team would be absurd. Its not as if both Evgeni Malkin and Sidney Crosby will forget how to score. And last year even when Crosby went down with his high ankle injury, Malkin stepped up and over the bar. Plus they still have guys like Jordan Staal and Pascal Dupuis. I think their defense will suffer a bit though. Ryan Malone is gone and Sergei Gonchar, who is very underrated, will miss the entire season. Brooks Orpik cannot do it alone. And no. Miroslav Satan may not be the answer. But - the team will not be bad. They can't be. They will score plenty. And Marc Andre Fleury, who got me to be a believer in last year’s playoffs, will keep them in games. He can't do it alone, no. But he shouldn't have to. There will be playoff hockey though in the Steel City, rest assured.
Rangers – Honestly, I think the Atlantic division will be the toughest and will have the most representatives going to the playoffs of any in the East. But my questions start and end with this team in NY. My team. I am putting aside the first two games in Prague. Basket them. They will probably mean nothing in a week anyway. Do I think this team will score more goals than last year? Last year there weren’t many goals to speak of and a power play to embarrass even the best of us all, but, it’s hard to say that they will score less with guys like Markus Naslund and Nik Zherdev, and hopefully a re-energized Chris Drury and Scott Gomez. So I’d have to assume that unless everyone has an awful year, they will score more. And if they score more, and some of these guys hit their strides in NY, they’ll be dangerous. Do I think we’ll be as defensively strong as last year? They better be, if they want to win 2-1 games. But, yet, I’m still not sure how I feel about Wade Redden and Dmitri Kalinin, and although I like Marc Staal and Dan Girardi, I'm not sure they can carry this team yet. And carrying only six defensemen? I wanted Corey Potter on this team. Think that might be a mistake for the Bluehsirts. And yet despite all that, I think guys like Brandon Dubinsky, Ryan Callahan, and Lauri Korpikoski can flourish under this new system of speed and energy. But, eh. Honestly this is my hardest team to predict because if I had to guess, I’d say they have both the potential to be the best team in the East and the potential to fall flat on their faces. So, to be fair, I’ll go somewhere in between. The Rangers will be a playoff team, but they will not crack the top four.
Southeast:
Capitals – Oh to be young, Russian, and in the American capital city. Whooo! I am very excited to see this year’s Capitals team. With reigning scoring champion Alex Ovechkin and supporting crew of Mike Green, Nick Backstrom, Alexander Semin and Sergei Federov returning, look out! A healthy Michael Nylander will be an improvement over last year. My only question is in goal – one Jose Theodore. But, you know, I really think Washington is one of those teams that can and might have to depend on winning 5-4, 6-3 games this year. And they can do it. I think the Capitals are going to be better than last year and definitely win the division. They might even challenge for one of the top two spots in the East, especially since I think they'll garner a lot of points playing against the likes of Tampa and Atlanta. So, game on in the nation’s capital. Game on!
Hurricanes – Obviously Carolina came within a game and a night of making the playoffs last year. But that felt like the longest distance for them, I'm sure. A year should be enough to turn the team around, but with key injuries to Justin Williams and Scott Walker it will be tough. Erik Cole has departed to Edmonton. The team doesn’t look that different but it seems miles away from the Cup win in 2006. I just don’t know. I can’t argue with Rod Brind’Amour’s leadership or Peter Laviolette’s style or even what I assume to be a great year for Eric Staal, who has just shored up a long, new contract to remain in NC. But… I just don’t think they have enough in them to knock someone out of the East. Hope it’s competitive though and hope I get down to RBC again this year. Beautiful arena and the best burgers ever!
Lightning – Oh, boy. Where to begin? In short, I think Tampa will not struggle to score goals. A healthy Vinny LeCavalier and a new stud named Steven Stamkos should be enough alone to ensure goals are scored. Add in a Martin St. Louis and a Vinny Prospal. They will most likely score goals. And despite my earlier uncertainty, their goalie situation seems to be in very good hands. Six to be exact – two each of Mike Smith, Karri Ramo, and the veteran Olie Kolzig. However, and I touched upon it in my last blog, there seems to be no plan on defense. And that will kill you in a defensively stingy East. Do I think they’ll entertain – yes. Do I think they’ll be better than many think – yes. Do I think they’ll make the playoffs – no. Not this year in Tampa. But at least we all have Vinny L to stare at. And, hey, although massively underage, Stamkos is not bad either. And probably the most eloquent rookie I’ve seen in a long time. His interview when the Rangers went down to Tampa – highly impressive. Tampa will be good. Just not that good so soon. Oh but as if #4 and #91 weren't enough reason to watch - you have coach Barry Melrose behind the helm. Those post game interviews will pay the price of admission alone.
Thrashers - Hard to pick a team I feel worse for than Atlanta. I really cannot think of one bright spot, besides Ilya Kovalchuk, that will get fans through this long, long season. Slava Kozlov should toss in a few goals. And it will be interesting to see how and if young Zach Bogosian stays with the big club this year. The only other thing of note is that Mathieu Schneider will provide some veteran leadership on D. But for a team that lost Marian Hossa at trade deadline and that must know they are just one or two more bad seasons from losing Kovalchuk as well, it’s hard to smile. I’ll also be curious to see how the goaltending tandem of Johan Hedberg, who I love, and Kari Lehtonen, who has shown flashes of brilliance and shocks of reality, fare. The first every playoff appearance and subsequent four game sweep at the hands of the Rangers might as well have been a decade ago. There will be no hockey playoffs in Georgia this year.
Panthers – Despite picking Florida a year or two ago (or perhaps every year) to make the playoffs and consistently being given a dose of reality, I am going to go out on a limb and say that, yes, they will be better this year. Tomas Vokoun is going to have a better year and he might have to carry them. As long as Jay Bouwmeester remains in South Florida – a big TBD – he will be a better player. And yes, captain Oli Jokinen has gone to Phoenix. But. . .maybe they’ll be better for it. Something was always missing in Florida. Just one or two small pieces. Maybe they’ll be better, by addition through subtraction. But I feel it. If it can happen to the Tampa Rays, why not to the Florida Panthers. Playoffs in Florida? Maybe!
Northeast:
TOR – Oh Luke Schenn. Welcome to the Blue and White and welcome to what should be a disappointing year in the GTA. And no, not for you. I’m excited to see you play. But for the rest of that team, I have no idea what to think. Insulting their captain Mats Sundin to the point he has no clue whether he is coming or going, although be sure, he is not coming back to Toronto. Long time defenseman Brian McCabe has bailed for Florida. Mike Van Ryn steps in. When Ryan Hollweg and Jeff Finger are two of your only acquisitions in the off-season, well, it’s going to be a long year. Familiar sight on Ontario ice – Curtis Joseph for the Leafs. One more time with the Matthew Wilder lyrics “oh, no, Cujo. Maple Leafs gonna keep on losing. . .” Kidding Cujo, kidding. Well, no, they will keep on losing, but I sadly don’t think there is anything you or Vesa Toskala can do about it.
Les Canadiens - I hear a lot of chatter from Montreal. And no one wants or needs the team to be better than the fans of this, hockey's most storied franchise. And, of course, in this, their 100th season, the pressure has never been greater. They will need another banner year from Alex Kovalev, a solid effort from captain Saku Koivu, good years from young ones, Tomas Plekanec, the Kostitsyns, Christopher Higgins, Michael Komisarek and Guilluame Latendresse, and of course a stellar year from young goalie of the new millennium, Carey Price. In a year where there will be many ceremonies, including a banner raising for one Patrick Roy, the team will need to be sharp to keep the fans and the city happy. And, honestly, with minimal additions – Alex Tanguay, Robert Lang and Georges Laraques– and minimal departures – Mark Streit and Michael Ryder – I don’t see why they won’t. Montreal will easily, in my opinion, win the Northeast, and contend again for a top two spot in the conference.
Senators – The team I am not going to give as much credit to as I probably should. And here we begin. I would never want to bet against a team that has the trio of Daniel Alfredsson, Jason Spezza, and Dany Heatley. I for one think Heatley will have a career year. I really do. But, we've seen what happens when that one line stops scoring. Disaster! And I am not convinced Marty Gerber can get it done in nets. Although Alex Auld was impressive in what I’ve seen of him. And their defense boasts an Anton Volchenkov and Chris Phillips pairing that cannot play all 60 minutes. And I’m not as impressed with their other D. When Vonchenkov was injured, the Senators felt the loss of their top shot blocker. And I’m not sure who steps in. Maybe it’s the memory of the monumental collapse that has my view skewed, but I am not sure this team makes the playoffs. If they do, they are a seven or an eight seed. And maybe that’s short-sided, because I do think they’ll obviously gain points from the less than stellar years I assume Toronto and Buffalo will be having, but Montreal and Boston are surely going to take it to them. You just can't rely on one team and one defensive pairing. Not in this league. I see them perhaps coming just short this year.
Bruins – Last fall I told people in Boston that their team would improve. Maybe not as much as I thought and certainly not with the goalie I thought (Manny Fernandez went down with injury pretty early on) but they did make strides. And whether fans of the Habs can admit it, they were VERY close to being sent home at the hands of this Boston team. I seriously think, whether it’s Fernandez stepping in, Tim Thomas standing pat, or Tuukka Rask stepping up, this team can make it in nets. And Marc Savard as well as Marco Sturm are poised for high point totals this season as they did last year. Patrice Bergeron being back and thankfully healthy will only help. Their defense is not full of big names, but I’ve watched these guys shut down the Rangers time and again. I feel good about Boston’s chances. I think it’ll be a good year and people will be surprised.
Sabres – While I don’t feel as bad for the Sabres as I do for the Thrashers, I still feel for them. Almost two and a half years removed from a Eastern Conference Finals appearance to missing the playoffs entirely. It hasn’t been good in Buffalo, financially or otherwise. Thankfully, they still have Ryan Miller and Derek Roy. Miller, when on, is one of the better goalies in the league and can help them win. Roy had a monster breakout season last year and I’m counting on this year to be more of the same. However, that might be the two most exciting things to mention. Pretty much all the names are the same, and yet the feeling that surrounded this team two years ago is gone. I just don’t see where the firepower will come from. I hope it’s a better year for Buffalo, but I think they’ll fall just short again. Here’s hoping Tim Connolly and Teppo Numminen have good healthy years though.
Okay, yes, I know, I got wordier than I wanted to. But, without further ado, my playoff predictions are:
1) Montreal Canadiens
2) Washington Capitals
3) Philadelphia Flyers
4) Pittsburgh Penguins
5) Boston Bruins
6) New York Rangers
7) New Jersey Devils
8) Florida Panthers
The order, of course, I am not so sure about. As if I’d am sure about any of it – ha! These are merely guesses. Probably some safe ones, but some risky ones (Florida over Ottawa) as well. But I’ll take it. Just don’t you take it to the bank!
Stay tuned for the Western preview and predictions at some point in the next day or two.
I'm out.
**Authors's note: If you get the chance to catch XM204's Hockey Confidential with Kevin Weekes, do so. What a GREAT interview. Maybe I'm biased because I always liked the guy, but he's as eloquent as they come. A great obeserver of the game, with a great attitude. And such a genuinely nice and charitible person. Good for him. **
Rangers in First. . .?
Hey sports fans. I must first apologize. I was away from computer and TV access this weekend. I know, I know. A Rangers fan who thinks of Opening Day as a more important holiday than Christmas, and she misses the game. Travesty. I know. But if there was ANY way in the world I could have gotten out of my previous engagement, I would have, be assured. At least I got a good breakfast out of the deal.
So I'll be honest. Yes, hockey season has officially started. I've got my fantasy team. I'm working on my predictions. But I feel very behind. Heck, I was the one thinking hockey season was taking too long to get here, even though the summer flew by like none I've ever known before. (As you get older folks, summer - not as long as it was when you were 5.) But yet, the hockey season managed to sneak up on me. Last year, also and ironically, I was out of TV and out of computer friendly zone, for the opening games in Europe. (This better not be an annual pattern!) But I was okay with missing a Los Angeles/Anaheim tilt or two. Missing the Rangers, that was really difficult. And as a result I am both behind, and not really believing the actual hockey season has started. That and the fact that other teams were still playing pre-season games last night and tonight. It's all just really messing with my head.
So here's what I did see/hear. I listened (and sneakily watched) both pre-season games the Rangers played in Bern. Could not be impressed that they trumped a SC Bern squad 8-1 because, well, they are not an NHL squad. And the game against MM (easier that way, isn't it!) - that was fun. As MM went up 3-0, I said, these are my boys. Failing to score. Failing to generate offense. And then they came back. Great end to the game. Great. First Victoria Cup ever, won by the team in New York. On a side note, I think the trophy looked beautiful. Maybe it's my gypsy background (way back there somewhere) but it didn't think it looked gaudy; I thought it looked great. Lit up, especially. Good job on the presentation with that.
Which brings us to the start of the regular season. Which I missed. (Still a tad bitter, I guess).
Oh but before we get to that. Very side note. I was livid when the blogs on Friday morning started rumors that Petr Prucha wasn't playing in his home country to start the season. Really angry and really upset for a guy who, in some ways, has been shuffled to the point of utter confusion and lack of confidence. And he deserved better. I felt and continue to feel that if he is not going to be given a legitimate chance to have a role on this team, he should be traded. I don't want him to, but he should be. Now, game time came and he played, which is the right thing to do. Common courtesy to a guy that wore a smile no matter how many times he got shuffled and/or sat in the locker room last season. So at least they got that one right. Whoever convinced whomever to change their mind, thanks. Because if not, it would have been an embarrassment.
Now, I wasn't able to watch or listen to one second of Saturday's game. I read a blog later so I caught up on play by play. But I did get to listen and/or watch all of Sunday's game. And in the little I did catch - there is one thing that can't be denied. Passing looks better. And they are fast.
Also can't be denied is the fact that this team is piling on the shots but despite that they cannot seem to score. (In fact with the exception of the game against SC Bern they've not scored more than 2 goals yet). And my problem with that is. . .will it get better? We can say that, yes, if they continue to get 40 shots on goal a night, that they will start to score. Very possible. But more possible, that they will not average 40 shots a night on goal. In reality, that'd be hard to do. And we have to consider that despite offensive firepower potential, Tampa Bay is not a great team. And probably won't be. I think all three goalies - Olaf Kolzig, Karri Ramo, and Mike Smith - played impressively against the Rangers in the last week and a half. Very impressive. But Tampa Bay scoring 4 goals a night, will not win them every game. They still lack a cohesive defensive plan, or a plan in general. That may come, but again, my point is, that the Rangers dominated a team this weekend in shots. That might not be the case against the better teams in the league, and it certainly won't be the case every night. Two goals is very average, or even below average in this supposed new "we need more goals" NHL. Regardless, the Rangers are going to need to score more than 2 goals a night. If not for themselves and to get points, for my sanity. Seriously. 2-1 is nice for the moment, but that will not win very many games. Hank Lundqvist played better, but I'll feel better if the talk about his knees is a thing of the past and he doesn't have too many of those "ole" moments where he's kicking his leg and shooting out his glove after the puck is already in the net.
So, despite the ooo-ahhhers who say the Rangers are in first, I still want to see how they fare in the next month against the likes of Dallas and Chicago, Detroit and New Jersey. And of course, sure, a bunch of rushes may look great, but if this fast and quick team fails to score soon, it will only mean lots of frustration in MSG. The same if their supposed boosted PP targets at only 2 for 15.
A long season, folks. A long season.
2 games down and 80 left to go.
So I'll be honest. Yes, hockey season has officially started. I've got my fantasy team. I'm working on my predictions. But I feel very behind. Heck, I was the one thinking hockey season was taking too long to get here, even though the summer flew by like none I've ever known before. (As you get older folks, summer - not as long as it was when you were 5.) But yet, the hockey season managed to sneak up on me. Last year, also and ironically, I was out of TV and out of computer friendly zone, for the opening games in Europe. (This better not be an annual pattern!) But I was okay with missing a Los Angeles/Anaheim tilt or two. Missing the Rangers, that was really difficult. And as a result I am both behind, and not really believing the actual hockey season has started. That and the fact that other teams were still playing pre-season games last night and tonight. It's all just really messing with my head.
So here's what I did see/hear. I listened (and sneakily watched) both pre-season games the Rangers played in Bern. Could not be impressed that they trumped a SC Bern squad 8-1 because, well, they are not an NHL squad. And the game against MM (easier that way, isn't it!) - that was fun. As MM went up 3-0, I said, these are my boys. Failing to score. Failing to generate offense. And then they came back. Great end to the game. Great. First Victoria Cup ever, won by the team in New York. On a side note, I think the trophy looked beautiful. Maybe it's my gypsy background (way back there somewhere) but it didn't think it looked gaudy; I thought it looked great. Lit up, especially. Good job on the presentation with that.
Which brings us to the start of the regular season. Which I missed. (Still a tad bitter, I guess).
Oh but before we get to that. Very side note. I was livid when the blogs on Friday morning started rumors that Petr Prucha wasn't playing in his home country to start the season. Really angry and really upset for a guy who, in some ways, has been shuffled to the point of utter confusion and lack of confidence. And he deserved better. I felt and continue to feel that if he is not going to be given a legitimate chance to have a role on this team, he should be traded. I don't want him to, but he should be. Now, game time came and he played, which is the right thing to do. Common courtesy to a guy that wore a smile no matter how many times he got shuffled and/or sat in the locker room last season. So at least they got that one right. Whoever convinced whomever to change their mind, thanks. Because if not, it would have been an embarrassment.
Now, I wasn't able to watch or listen to one second of Saturday's game. I read a blog later so I caught up on play by play. But I did get to listen and/or watch all of Sunday's game. And in the little I did catch - there is one thing that can't be denied. Passing looks better. And they are fast.
Also can't be denied is the fact that this team is piling on the shots but despite that they cannot seem to score. (In fact with the exception of the game against SC Bern they've not scored more than 2 goals yet). And my problem with that is. . .will it get better? We can say that, yes, if they continue to get 40 shots on goal a night, that they will start to score. Very possible. But more possible, that they will not average 40 shots a night on goal. In reality, that'd be hard to do. And we have to consider that despite offensive firepower potential, Tampa Bay is not a great team. And probably won't be. I think all three goalies - Olaf Kolzig, Karri Ramo, and Mike Smith - played impressively against the Rangers in the last week and a half. Very impressive. But Tampa Bay scoring 4 goals a night, will not win them every game. They still lack a cohesive defensive plan, or a plan in general. That may come, but again, my point is, that the Rangers dominated a team this weekend in shots. That might not be the case against the better teams in the league, and it certainly won't be the case every night. Two goals is very average, or even below average in this supposed new "we need more goals" NHL. Regardless, the Rangers are going to need to score more than 2 goals a night. If not for themselves and to get points, for my sanity. Seriously. 2-1 is nice for the moment, but that will not win very many games. Hank Lundqvist played better, but I'll feel better if the talk about his knees is a thing of the past and he doesn't have too many of those "ole" moments where he's kicking his leg and shooting out his glove after the puck is already in the net.
So, despite the ooo-ahhhers who say the Rangers are in first, I still want to see how they fare in the next month against the likes of Dallas and Chicago, Detroit and New Jersey. And of course, sure, a bunch of rushes may look great, but if this fast and quick team fails to score soon, it will only mean lots of frustration in MSG. The same if their supposed boosted PP targets at only 2 for 15.
A long season, folks. A long season.
2 games down and 80 left to go.
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